What to expect from US-Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia

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Saudi Arabia is set to host talks between the Ukraine and the US in the wake of an extraordinary White House meeting between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and JD Vance that descended into a 10-minute argument.

The talks will begin on Tuesday, nearly a month after a Russian delegation’s first round of meetings with Mr Trump‘s team. The US president said over the weekend that he was optimistic there would be “a lot of progress” at the talks. In the same breath, he said he was not sure if Ukraine would survive Russia’s invasion.

Ukraine’s main goal – and indeed Europe’s top objective – is simply to get the US back on side Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer dispatched his national security advisor Jonathan Powell to Kyiv over the weekend to advise Ukraine on the talks.

Saudi Arabia may seem like an unusual venue for talks aimed at smoothing over relations after the blowup. But the oil-rich kingdom, under its assertive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been positioning itself as an ideal location for possible peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow — and even the first face-to-face talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Mr Trump.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry have said that the talks will take place in Jeddah, a port city on the Red Sea

Over the weekend, Putin’s forces mounted a counterattack in the Russia border region of Kursk, which Ukraine has partially held since last August, threatening one of Kyiv’s most important negotiation cards: Russian land.

Ukraine, then, heads into these talks in a perilous position. They must do everything they can to reverse the course.

Who will attend the talks?

Mr Zelensky headed to Saudi Arabia on Monday. He earlier delayed a trip to the kingdom after traveling to the neighboring United Arab Emirates, which also has been considered as a possible venue for peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.

“We continue working on the relevant steps with our partners who want peace, who want it just as much as we do,” Mr Zelensky said Friday. “There will be a lot of work here in Europe, with America in Saudi Arabia — we are preparing a meeting to accelerate peace and strengthen the foundations of security.”

At the meeting at the White House 10 days ago, Mr Trump claimed Mr Zelensky was not ready to end the fighting. At one point he admonished the Ukrainian leader by angrily saying: “You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country.”

Mr Zelensky ended up leaving without signing a deal that included granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. Kyiv hoped that deal would ensure the continued flow of US military support that Ukraine urgently needs as it battles Russia in the war that began after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

After the spat, the Trump administration paused military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. On Sunday, Trump said that he had “just about” lifted the intelligence pause and was looking at a lot of things with respect to tariffs on Russia. Mr Trump said he thought Ukraine would sign the minerals agreement.

Mr Zelensky wrote online that a team including his chief of staff Andriy Yermak, foreign minister Andriy Sybiha and defense minister Rustem Umerov traveling with him to Saudi Arabia will take part in the talks. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will lead the American team for the Ukrainian talks and meet with Prince Mohammed. National security adviser Mike Waltz and Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, will also be present.

Mr Sybiha has also spoken Mr Rubio ahead of the talks. Mr Sybiha described it as a “constructive call.” A two-sentence readout from the State Department said Mr Rubio “underscored President Trump is determined to end the war as soon as possible and emphasized that all sides must take steps to secure a sustainable peace.”

What is Ukraine planning to propose?

It is believed that Ukrainian officials will propose a partial ceasefire across air and sea with Russia – including long-range drone and missile strikes and combat operations in the Black Sea. It is an idea Mr Zelensky spoke openly about this on social media last week after an overnight Russian missile and drone attack killed 14 people and injured dozens more.

Ukraine hopes this will convince the US to resume full intelligence and military support. That is their priority.

Last week, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described any form of a partial ceasefire as “absolutely unacceptable” without a “final settlement”.

What has the US said?

US officials say that Mr Trump wants Mr Zelensky to be more prepared to make concessions, such as giving up territory to Russia.

He is also said to want Mr Zelensky to make some movement towards elections in Ukraine and possibly towards stepping down as his country’s leader.

But the Ukrainian government, including the opposition, is united against holding elections. Ukraine has not held elections due last year because the country is under martial law.

One opposition leader, Kira Rudik, of the Holos party, previously told The Independent that it would be impossible to hold elections because it would legitimise Russia’s occupation of a fifth of the country, where Ukrainians would not be able to vote.

Mr Zelensky, meanwhile, has said he would happily exchange his role for Ukrainian membership to Nato, viewed in Kyiv as the key security guarantee against future Russian attacks. Mr Trump has ruled that out.